Week 3 torture

[jaypaw]

week 1 0-5, and went 3-2-1 in week 2 - gets me to 3-7-1.

Fading me still looks like a great option for anyone with good sense.

I am leaning now towards:

Buffalo +3 @Miami
I suppose their success against miami will have to end someday but their momentum is tough to shy away from.

Seattle -3 vs darams
Not sure really how bad Arizona and NO are and I know bulger has shown he can step up when needed but I gotta be convinced that this seattle team is not for real...

Minnesota -3.5 @detroit
I hope too many people on this one doesnt jinx me but is this not a no brainer? Is there a matchup worth discussing here?

Tampa Bay -4 @Atlanta
Bounceback... Gotta think some more about this one - anyone have any thoughts?

NY Giants +2.5 @Washington
Skins seem to have it in gear now but the G men gotta be pissed and I don't seem them letting down here. Everyone knows they can score the points but their D is the question. Was Dallas a fluke? was it emotions? or are the giants jinxed for life?

 

[jaypaw]

Also thinking about the Jets +6.5...

Rosey colvin is out and he was one of the reasons I think the pats went to that D. Ted johnson out - and Willie McG having to step up scares me - especially against the jets.

I know the jets have fizzled but they gotta win one at some point this year and the pats heads are all over the map with the injuries and BS going on.

Any thoughts?

 

[jaypaw]

also the pats as favorites are horrid.

 

[RPM]

actually, it looks to me like you are on the upswing man!~

stay positive

 

[jaypaw]

thanks rpm...

upswing would be nice.

I appreciate the encouragement - I just hope it makes me money and not the people that log on here to fade me (if there are any ?).

DO I get a tshirt or a lapdance or something for 1000 posts?

 

[drunkguy]

like 'em all except jets...I am avoiding that game totally.

Gruden will be on his boys hard this week after the loss, they should come out in prime form, atlanta is suspect all around.

good luck this week

 

[Oren1]

good luck J. Miami can easily surprise everyone and show up big and punk the Bills, but you might consider the ML in that game, +150 for one of the best teams in the NFL is pretty nice.

after that crazy Giants/Cowboys game you might condider buying 1/2 a point there in case we get another wild divisional tug-of-war.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Jay - congrats on 1000 posts, appreciate your insights around here. Only game I have an opinion on right now is the Bucs. Last week I was on Carolina and this week I will be on the Bucs. I live in Tampa and follow them closely, they seem to do the opposite of what the town expects. Everyone thought they would blow out Carolina and you saw what happened. Now everyone is worried about this week and asking questons about "are we really that good?"

History has shown me this is when they come up big time. Obviously I could be wrong but just my observations for what they are worth, my money in on the Bucs. Good luck.

 

[jaypaw]

Thanks guys:

Drunk - I see your concern with the jets, and I will most likely end up staying off that game. I am too much of a pats fan to be able to make an accurate decision on this team.

Oren - you might be right on about that ML it does seem like it might be worth a shot. This game is gonna be fun to watch I know that. To be honest though - normally I agree on buying points but I dont see these 2 teams playing a close game. Miami could drive bledsoes head into the ground - or vise versa, and if this happens it could end up a blow out one way or the other. Shootout? Yes. Divisional Tug-O-War? Yes. Close game? Possibly for some of the game but I cant remember the last game the Bills played that was decided by a few points...

PM - Bucs do look good, that sounds like the pats scenario as well. When they fly under the radar they come out ripping heads off - but when they have to live up to expectations they just lay down and take the beating.

 

[Hardwaymoney]

like your minney pick the best....

best bet next week baltimore even against the chargers....balt all day long...

 

[Oren1]

jay, I was refering to the Giants +2 1/2 play, sorry I know, I was unclear on that. your estimate of that Bills Miami game sounds dead on. I don't know if Miami is going to be able to stop the Bills offense, or if the Bills will be able to stop Ricky, it outta be a good one. I've got Ricky Williams and Travis Henry on my fantasy team, should I play them both? I've got Henry on the bench so far figuring Bullalo will be airing it out to score, while Miami might have some success running against that Bills D, but they do look better this year so far... although their rushing D is ranked #18 so far this year while their passing D is #1. Miami is # 3 against the pass

and # 6 against the run

only 2 games factored in but....

 

[jaypaw]

Cool Oren

notice the pats line is 7 at bodog... The jets are looking better to me now.

Still not sure.

Minny should be a good one - I gotta look some more at the matchups to see if there is anyway this could be a trap...

 

[KMAN]

Jaypaw - I like Minnesota, Seattle, and TB.

Not sure about the others. Buffalo has played well but I think Miami really needs this. They can't afford to go to 1-2.

The Giants scare me. I originally thought that they were a SuperBowl contender but after watching Quincy Carter shred them like he did, what will Ramsey do?

Also, the Giants have to be worn out after that game. The Skins, having the extra day of practice and being at home may cause problems for the Giants O-Line if Pettigout isn't back.
Who knows. Just my thoughts.

GL,
KMAN

[This message was edited by KMAN on September 17, 2003 at 11:42 AM.]

 

[jaypaw]

good point KMAN maybe buffalo doesnt need this as bad as Miami coming in at 2-0 when miami is 1-1. But they whipped em last year and they are an improved team this year. I'm still not sure if Miami is that much better this year.

The Giants always score points which is cool but I'm not so convinced yet of the skins offense... at least 2 of their tds vs atlanta were a result of short fields and maybe the giants will give up similar situations but I would think that after last week they'd start to try to minimize those situations.

who knows

 

[jaypaw]

Is there anyone here that is convinced of the skins offense? like is Coles gonna carry this team on his shoulders?

 

[jaypaw]

I like minny cause of the following facts - which of course don't mean that anything is set in stone - I just meant that there are a few things that stick right out when I look at this game - and you might have noticed them too:

#1
The Lions played the Vikes hard twice last year and the vikes won't forget it. I could be wrong but I thought the last meeting between the two got kind of nasty at the end and some vikings got hurt - which was bogus because it was the last game of the season and didnt mean anything for either team. Having said that, motivation in this game shouldnt be a problem on either side.

#2
Week 1 the Vikes were able to win @ Lambeau finally. In week 2 the Lions rolled over @ Lambeau and got Lambasted. Maybe they got the brunt of the frustration from GB but its a comparison nonetheless.

#3
Both teams have played a "crappy team" (I know I'll get in trouble for this) and both won. Minny beat Chicago 24-13 in wk 2, and Detroit beat Arizona 42-24 in week 2.

A poster noted that the Vikes BARELY covered as a result of some last minute stuff.

I would like to point out a similarity in the
lions defeat of the Cardinals:

Detroit was a 4 point favorite.

14 pts in the 4th quarter - before which score was 28-24 (Detroit up by 3) then:

A 36 yard short field TD drive as a result of a fumble recovery, and interception return for 50 yards.

ALSO - prior to this Detroit went 4 and out - and they recovered a muffed punt - resulting in another short field - of 35 yards. Before this happened the score was tied I believe at 21.


In contrast in Minny's win over Chicago - the Vikes lead the game throughout, and though the "cover" was important - I doubt the team was thinking about much more than holding their lead.

Their 2 final scoring drives however - consisted of 93 and 92 yard drives. They were a result of good ball control and good field management.

Also the Vikes were up 17-10 at the half.


Now I'm NOT making the point that special teams and "getting the right bounces" do not matter. Clearly the detroit win over aizona was a result of hard work and a good game plan and I am not taking anything away from them in pointing out how they scored.

IF they can do that against minnesota then they should be able to put up a good fight and very possibly could pull off a cover or a win.

However, Minnesota has not shown that they are succeptible to this type of play - either that or they just havent seen it.


So when I say "the obvious" this is what I am referring to. and I probably should have said "obvious" but I was too lazy to type it all out.


But I'm not saying I cant be convinced otherwise - i'm all ears.

 

[jaypaw]

Good news on the Bills game:

NFL Thu, September 18, 2003
Moulds fired up by Dolphins' accusations
Associated Press

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Eric Moulds was fired up Wednesday -- spitting mad, you could say -- after hearing what the Miami Dolphins are saying about him.

Just days before the Bills play at Miami on Sunday night, the Dolphins accusing Moulds of spitting at cornerback Patrick Surtain in a game last season.

Moulds denied that he purposely spit at anybody. And he's particularly upset that it's Miami safety Brock Marion -- not Surtain -- who's making the allegation.

"Me and Surtain are fine. We hung out at the Pro Bowl, had a few drinks together," Moulds said. "But I have a problem with other guys talking about stuff that don't concern them. ... But there's no shaking that I'm going to be there Sunday, so if they want to do their talking on the field, we'll do it that way."


Is he fired up?

"I've been fired up ever since I heard those guys felt that they were better than us," Moulds said referring to offseason talk. "And we feel like we've worked hard this offseason to get to a certain point. We'll see what happens Sunday. I'm going to do my talking there and then we'll see what happens."

The AFC East rivals have a long history of bad blood. It began with the Bills going 0-20 against the Dolphins through the 1970s. It escalated with Miami linebacker Bryan Cox making obscene gestures at Bills fans before a game in Buffalo in the early 1990s. And then there were the three times Buffalo knocked Miami out of the playoffs: 1990, '92 and '95.

Now this.

It all began when Marion said, in a story published in Wednesday's edition of The Miami Herald, that he had "lost all respect" for Moulds. He accused Moulds of spitting at Surtain during last year's 38-21 loss at Buffalo.

"What more can I say?" Marion said. "If I spit on you, aren't you going to lose all respect for me? He's still a good player, but that's not called for in this game."

Marion and Surtain didn't make themselves available to reporters on Wednesday, but that didn't stop Dolphins defensive tackle Larry Chester from chiming in.

"I hope he spits on me. Please," Chester said of Moulds. "I couldn't let a man spit on me and be satisfied with it. I know Pat is not satisfied. We would still be fighting to this day. Every time I would see him it would be a confrontation, because that's just not cool."

Several Bills players and coach Gregg Williams said they knew nothing about what happened last year or that they were aware of Marion's comments this week.

Moulds wasn't shying away.

He called what happened last season a misunderstanding. Moulds said that if he had spit at Surtain, it was accidental, saying spittle might have left his mouth while the two were yelling at each other during the game.

And Moulds had a theory on why Marion -- not Surtain -- made the statements.

"Well he doesn't have to cover me. He's a safety. A safety can say whatever he wants to," Moulds said. "You don't hear the corners saying too much of anything because they know they have to play against me every down.

"A safety just sits back there and basically just rolls from one side to the other."

Moulds has had a great deal of success against the Dolphins, with 47 catches for 869 yards and nine touchdowns in 14 games. His numbers are even better -- 20 catches for 489 yards and four TDs -- in his last four outings against Miami.

It's not a coincidence, he said.

"They play man-to-man," Moulds said. "If you're going to play man-to-man and don't double team, you give yourself a bad chance of getting embarrassed. That's what's going to happen if they play man-to-man."

 

[jaypaw]

I like the bills when they are fired up.

Maybe its just talk but I get a good feeling on this one.


I might as well cut through the BS and make these picks final...

 

[jaypaw]

Buffalo +3 @Miami

Seattle -3 vs darams

Minnesota -4 @detroit

Tampa Bay -4.5 @Atlanta

NY Giants +2.5 @Washington

Jets +7 @New England

 

[Oren1]

good luck J. Like the Buff, Minny, and Tampa picks, the others I see going either way while New England has got to be pissed off at starting 0-2 and might just clobber the Jets... 7 points is a lot though, maybe Testaverde can put something together. If the Giants can learn how to throw and catch the ball again they win easily, but if they continue to play as sloppily as they did against the Cowboys I thinkg the skins will pull it off. So I'm torn on that one. Momentum seems to be in Buffalo's favor, as you know I'm on them as well, it's a good pick getting 3 points for what some people are calling the best team in the NFL right now. If Seattle can put pressure on Bulger they can win that one as well, they've been hot, the Rams have not. I'd rather take the over in that one however.